Iran’s nuclear program - and the costs of stopping it

This paper considers the positions of US and Israeli leaders, the current negotiations, and the possible drivers for a military strike against Iran. Over the last six months, the prospects of an Israeli preemptive strike against the Iranian nuclear weapons program have been much discussed. The Iranian nuclear program is an important issue for Australia - it goes to the heart of our own concerns about proliferation, a stable Middle East, and secure global energy supplies. This paper looks at the implications of this issue for Australia

Strategic interests and Australian grand strategy

The newly-released National Security Strategy provides good coverage of broad security issues, but could have given a more expansive worldview. Previous Defence White Papers have shown our approach to national security interests has been narrow and reactive rather than broad and proactive. This four-page report suggests there are ways to avoid the trap that strategic interests and objectives are all about the use of force and to move to an Australian grand strategy

Ballistic missile defence: how soon, how significant, and what should Australia's policy be?

Summary: The issue of ballistic missile defence (BMD) was a controversial one when US President Reagan first advocated a strategic-level system in the early 1980s. It remains so today. What’s Australia’s interest? We live a long way away from most current ballistic missile arsenals. But the ADF frequently deploys within range of ballistic missile systems, especially in Northeast Asia or the Middle East, and those systems might proliferate more widely in the future. The paper considers the two questions we need to decide. The first is the priority for enhancing the ADF’s own BMD capabilities. The second is whether it makes sense for us to participate in a cooperative arrangement with the US or other partners

Australia’s Strategic Priorities: Challenges for a New Government

This ARI deals with the key decisions on strategic priorities to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government. The Australian Labor Party came into power in November 2007 after a decade of shadow responsibilities on strategic matters. Now in power, its ‘more of the same’ approach to security and defence promised during the elections is facing new challenges. Some of the key ministers are almost newcomers to the strategic community and they will have to manage a controversial divide between those supporting a return to traditional defence priorities and those in favour of continuing the shift towards a broader security policy. The design of a new strategic policy is a demanding task that requires the definition and ‘operationalising’ of a new agenda. This ARI deals with the key decisions to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government regarding the orderly withdrawal of Australian ground forces from Iraq in 2008, the production of a new White Paper on Defence –and perhaps National Security as well–, strategic and procurement priorities, the Australia–US relationship and the tensions between Australia’s global and regional roles

Nuclear disarmament and its limits

This Policy Analysis explores the broad issue of nuclear weapons and their role in the international security environment. It is a complicated issue, and has been for over sixty years. Within the space of a month in the second half of 1945, the United States successfully tested the world’s first nuclear weapon (on 16 July) and subsequently dropped two nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki (6 and 9 August respectively) to bring to an end the Second World War. That chain of events, Colin Gray once observed, told the whole world the only secret worth knowing in the nuclear age: that nuclear weapons can be built and they do work. The events also outlined in stark form the central puzzle of nuclear strategy: how can such destructive weapons make a positive contribution to international security? Don’t such weapons make a nonsense of the supposed relationship between means and ends in warfare? This central puzzle was complicated by a secondary puzzle: the puzzle of proliferation. How could nuclear weapons make a positive contribution to international security if the weapons themselves were to spread into many hands

The eagle in a turbulent world: US and its global role

Australia is one of the US\u27s closest allies, and its interest in America\u27s role in the world is both direct and immediate. Regardless of who wins the election,the US is not about to disengage from the world. Still, there are possibilities for important shifts in US strategic behaviour. \u27Alternative Americas\u27 exist, and we explore some of them in this paper—in particular the idea of the US as a non-hegemonic power. This paper, authored by Rod Lyon, explores the idea that US global leadership faces new constraints. We are entering a period when global leadership will increasingly be a shared, rather than a solitary, condition. And that condition will shape our own policies. The bilateral relationship between Australia and the US will remain strong whoever is president. But its texture might be profoundly influenced by the outcome of the election: with one of the candidates promising more of a post-partisan world, Australia might have to work harder to maintain its influence in Washington

The next Defence White Paper: the strategic environment

This Policy Analysis examines the challenges confronting the forthcoming Defence White Paper. Rod Lyon argues that the White Paper needs to define the relationship between three core variables: a complex strategic environment, a set of decisions about Australia’s role in the world, and the constraints that limit that role

NATO, Australia and the future partnership

This Policy Analysis suggests that both Australia and NATO have to think harder about their emerging partnership. The NATO Secretary-General recently described such partnerships as a \u27permanent feature\u27 of international security in the 21st century and Australia, with competent military forces and a willingness to deploy them far afield, brings more to a relationship than most. Author Rod Lyon points out there are some big issues involved here, including the role that NATO might play in Asia. Australia would be keen to ensure that NATO\u27s partnerships in Asia support the transition to a regional security order where regional countries carry more of the weight

Strategy and its discontents: the place of strategy in national policymaking

This paper presents a collection of views about the definition, role, purpose and health of strategic policymaking. Introduction One of the liveliest debates to have taken place on ASPI’s blog, The Strategist, concerned the place of strategy in Canberra’s policymaking community. It seems that there’s little consensus around what strategy’s core business should be, let alone who should practice it and whether indeed enough strategy is being done by DFAT, Defence or other parts of government. The 11 short pieces printed here by eight authors with quite diverse perspectives span a broad range of views about the definition, role, purpose and health of strategic policymaking. There’s no more important debate in public policy than on the place of strategy in meeting complex national challenges. This paper hopefully will encourage a more structured debate about strategy’s place at the heart of national policymaking

To choose or not to choose: how to deal with China's growing power and influence

This paper collects 10 items published on the ASPI blog The Strategist by eight authors on one of the most important public policy issues of this decade and beyond: how to deal with China’s growing power and influence. The hope is that this debate will start to identify points of shared thinking and expose the areas where further work is needed to improve the quality of policy outcomes. ASPI will continue to publish on the topic. There is no more important subject for the future of Australia and for a stable Asia–Pacific